“Majority of voters want to remove government”

London. British politics always surprises. Last year, for example, no one really expected the political comeback of former Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, who quickly replaced Rishi Sunak as his Conservative foreign minister in November. Despite all the implausibility: Britons will be called to the polls by January 28, 2025, but perhaps this year.

The opposition Labor Party under the leadership of Keir Starmer is currently considered the favourite. After all, it's been 20 percentage points ahead of the Conservative government for months – thanks to Boris Johnson's promise to finally push through Brexit as prime minister, despite the Tories' landslide victory in 2019. However, the spectacular success was followed by an unprecedented decline.

Fall of ruling party: Pandemic celebrations wreak havoc on Downing Street

Celebrations in Downing Street during pandemic-related lockdowns have particularly contributed to the downfall of the ruling party. Tim Bale, a political scientist at Queen Mary University of London, told this newspaper that the so-called “partygate” and allegations of corruption and malfeasance against former MP Chris Fincher had caused lasting damage to the party.

Rishi Sunak wanted to change things as Johnson's successor, but he failed to do so, Sophie Stowers of the UK in a Changing Europe think tank confirms: “We know from polls that qualities like honesty and integrity are very important to voters. “Starmer is better than Sunak in this regard. “Even if swing voters aren't sure what Labor has to offer politically, they can be influenced to trust the opposition leader a little more.”

The Tory party has recently been further damaged by internal conflicts over how to deal with illegal immigration. There are many MPs who want to send those who arrived in Britain on small boats to Rwanda after the British Supreme Court ruled that the East African country was not safe. However, for another group, these projects cross a red line as they violate international law, Bale said. For Sunak, the search for a solution is like “squaring the circle.” And: The Tories won't gain much from the Rwanda plans in electoral terms anyway, Stowers says: “It's an issue that a lot of swing voters don't prioritize.” Additionally, there is the right-wing Reform UK Party. Having an easier time with this discussion, by giving more serious advice.

Great Britain: The economy is stagnating and the health system is in crisis

With the economy stagnant, the NHS in crisis and Sunak extremely unpopular, Bale lists the challenges for a Tory government. Against this backdrop, Starmer didn't have to do much to convince people to give his party a try. “Labor's priority is to inform voters about the issues at hand.” However, Stowers points to a danger for the current opposition: many Britons who voted for the Conservatives in 2019 still don't know who to support. According to Starmer, there is great danger in voting.

With Labor currently leading the polls, Stowers says the party is hoping for a snap election in May this year, ahead of the summer break. “Some conservatives may be interested in putting a foreseeable loss behind them.” However, the expert believes that elections in October are more likely as Sunak is counting on the improvement in the economy. “The Tories are hoping that an increase in real wages and some drastic tax cuts will sway people at the last minute,” Bale said. “Why should the Prime Minister, who is far behind in the polls, face the polls now? It doesn't make sense,” he said.

However, late voting is not in the interest of citizens. “If the polls are to be believed, the majority of voters want this government removed – the sooner the better,” says the political scientist. For Britons, an earlier election would make sense, Stowers said: the government is now a “lame duck” because there isn't enough time to pass new laws. This means the British people will face a long election campaign over the next few months.