May 22, 2024

What if Biden or Trump lose?

He falls seriously ill, dies suddenly, serious family problems arise — or the White House candidate goes to jail. Nothing is normal this election year in America, and such seemingly wild questions are suddenly no longer fanciful.

The two oldest presidential candidates of all time are in the race for the White House: Joe Biden is 81, Donald Trump is 77, and according to polls, he will be 78 before the election.A large portion of the population is concerned about the age of their opponents — both repeated slips of the tongue, missteps or faux pas. are stimulating. His Republican rival, Trump, is the first former president in U.S. history to face four criminal charges, which could land him behind bars in a worst-case scenario. So the vexing question for both is: What is Plan B — who can step in as a last-minute candidate?

Failure before nominating party conventions.

Biden and Trump have already won their parties' internal primaries and secured the necessary delegate votes for their respective nominating party conventions in the summer. Both are going to be officially announced as presidential candidates there. About 2,400 Republican delegates will meet in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in mid-July, and about 4,000 Democratic delegates will meet in Chicago, Illinois, in mid-August. If either Biden or Trump leaves before then, their respective party conventions, usually a choreographed coronation mass, will become the setting for a veritable voting drama.

Delegates would then not be bound by the consequences of the internal primacy in their state, but would be free to make their own decision. The position is open to all possible top candidates from their respective parties, and various alternative candidates will certainly announce their ambitions publicly. Delegates will choose a new presidential candidate at the party convention — probably with several rounds of voting and intense candidate lobbying and some spectacle. David Barker, a political scientist at American University in Washington, says: “It's going to be the most amazing thing anyone who follows American politics has ever experienced in their life.”

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Defeat after nominating party conventions.

If either Biden or Trump drop out only after the nominating party conventions, it's their respective party leadership's turn. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has nearly 170 members, while the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has several hundred – with representatives from every state. So it may not be the smallest board of directors making decisions. However, according to experts, a decision in such a round could be a problem.

Another party conference?

“It's unprecedented, and it's sure to spark a populist upsurge,” says Barker. He argues that critics of the Republican Party, in particular, deny what the “establishment elite” is saying to the grassroots. In this regard, if it is still feasible in terms of time and logistics, a Party Conference may be convened again as usual. It is expressly mentioned as an option in the Republican Party's laws.

Coincidentally, the former US president has pushed for a reshuffle of the Republican Party leadership and appointed two close confidants as co-chairs: election denier Michael Watley, who has backed Trump's claim that the 2020 presidential victory was stolen. Own daughter-in-law, Laura Trump, wife of his son Eric.

Defeat after Election Day.

The presidential election will be held on November 5 next year. If the winner of the election is unable to take office, the office goes to his deputy. It is regulated in the US Constitution. Biden has chosen his former running mate, Kamala Harris, as his running mate — and then he'll move on. Trump has yet to announce his running mate.

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Possible last-minute Democratic candidates:

Kamala Harris (59): The vice president would actually be Biden's natural successor. However, given his poor poll numbers and overall weak performance in his years in office, he is in poor shape and may find it hard to assert himself if he clears up the personnel issue before Election Day.

J Robert Pritzker (59): The governor of Illinois belongs to the progressive wing of the party. He comes from a rich family of entrepreneurs and is worth billions. He has great influence in the party but is not well known in the country.

Gavin Newsome (56): The governor of the powerful state of California has made a name for himself nationally and has actively worked on his political profile, most recently with highly publicized trips abroad. Some saw it as a shady campaign for the state's highest office.

Gretchen Whitmer (52): The Michigan governor has long been seen as a rising force in the party. Before the 2020 election, Biden considered her his running mate.

Possible last-minute Republican candidates:

Mr or Mrs X: Whoever Trump picks as his “running mate” should raise their hand.

Nikki Haley (52): The former US ambassador to the United Nations engaged in a week-long spat with Trump, but had no chance and eventually gave up. He sharpened his national profile through the fight. But he is loathed by die-hard Trump supporters.

Ron DeSantis (45): Florida's governor was once considered Trump's most promising rival. He did poorly in the primaries, but could play again.

Donald Trump Jr. (46): Trump's eldest son has been heavily involved in his father's campaign. The rebel is popular among Trump's base and has long been in talks to one day take over his father's political legacy.