Factors that accelerate global warming

The year 2023 confirms this Expectations of many scientific teams. It is considered so The hottest year on record so far Weather data regarding human-induced climate change. Forecasts for the still young year of 2024 point to even more record temperatures.

New study – new predictions

In one Scientific studypublished in November 2023, he says Climate scientist James E. Hansen, one of the authors, said that The rate of global warming in the coming decades It will increase by 50%. He stressed this in an interview The one-and-a-half-degree target set by the Paris climate conference can no longer be achieved. “In the next few months, the 12-month average temperatures will be well above 1.5 degrees Celsius,” Hansen says.

The Earth's temperature has risen by about 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. In some months of 2023, average global temperatures will rise by 1.5 to 1.6 degrees Celsius.

Represents exceeding the target by 1.5 degrees There is no terrible turning point For the earth to fall Climate science warns Under the supervision of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Serious and possibly irreversible consequences, if this value is significantly exceeded over several decades. Many staple foods will not be able to grow at this high temperature. Even the best water conservation measures will not be able to address expected droughts.

Scientists disagree About how Fast and accurate global temperature Through additional emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) exactly It will increase. One Study from 1979 Estimated to double carbon dioxide₂-Density in the atmosphere to An rises between 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius can lead. One IPC accountC says that the ground is in Double carbon dioxide₂-Emissions are about 3°C It can get hot.

Taking into account current greenhouse gas emissions, Hansen and his team predict that the 1.5°C mark will be permanently crossed in the 2020s, and the 2°C mark will be permanently crossed before 2050. Scientists assume a much faster rate than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change .

Confirming the trend – despite the disagreement

Climate scientist Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania He argues that he does not fully share the scenarios predicted by Hansen. However, “…The reality of the situation is bad enough.“, he wrote in one Blog post. Other researchers also expressed their doubts and said that such The increase is reasonable in some climate simulations Predictable Current temperature data for the planet alone this Predictions have not been confirmed (yet).

the Washington Post reported in detail about different opinions. As a basis for this, I published one register From NASA to global Average temperatures between 1880 and 2023 To take a closer look.

This showed it The pace of warming accelerated significantly around 1970 had become. Until now, it was assumed that this acceleration was due solely to increased greenhouse gas emissions since the 1970s.

This statement is not controversial, because before the 1970s and 1980s, in addition to fossil fuels, Large amounts of air pollutants or aerosols Emitted. Sulfur aerosols are light-colored particles that make up the part warming, caused by fossil fuels, Temporarily compensated ability. Your presence Reflect sunlight Returning to space and also affecting the formation of reflective clouds.

In the mid-20th century, industrialized countries were so polluted that the world was warming more slowly. “This was the right time London fog “Air pollution is very severe in the USA,” said Gaby Hegerle, a climate scientist at the University of Edinburgh. actual Stady In the journal Advances in Earth Systems Modeling, I found that these particles could have offset about 80% of global warming in the 1980s. I will have many Laws and their implementation result in “clean air” Contribute to our The planet is warming much faster today than it was in the first half of the twentieth century.

Science is not absolute!

It shows how cautious scientists are justified in their statements about the rate of global warming Looking back to 2013. At that time some of them came to one The opposite conclusion regarding the trend of climate change. Some scholars pointing to That climate change has stopped.

The ambiguity of the analyzes also emphasizes this Statistical sheet from Mark Richardson, a climate scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion LaboratoryWhich was launched last year. It was stated that the exact measurement of Acceleration during heating cannot yet be clearly demonstrated he. “The temperature near Earth is only a thin layer, and such temperature fluctuations are not unusual,” Richardson says. For this reason, he said, it takes longer for scientists to be sure that the change is outside what would normally be expected.

the The contradiction between declining air pollution and the simultaneous acceleration of global warming Hansen sees that too. He emphasizes that changes in aerosols could lead to a greater increase in the rate of warming in the next few years. That's how he performed International Maritime Organization In 2020, it introduced a regulation requiring a significant reduction in the sulfur content of marine diesel. Result: one Reducing sulfur dioxide pollution Through sea shipping. Clean air is also over the seas.

it's clear It is too early to confirm whether a major acceleration is underway. “Any attempt to estimate the base rate of temperature rise over short periods of time is difficult,” said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University. Just because you see a trend that actually looks like an acceleration doesn't tell you exactly what the underlying rate of warming is.

So what is certain is that global warming is progressing. There are just different opinions in science about how quickly it is progressing.