One expert believes that the rapid decline in infection values in the past few weeks will inevitably slow. Autumn forecast is not possible yet.
Jülich (dpa) – A more relaxed coronavirus situation can be expected in the coming months.
“For the current summer, based on current data, we expect a moderate level of infection, similar to last year,” explained Jan Fuhrmann of Forschungszentrum Jülich, which calculates possible epidemic cycles. “On the one hand, the dominant viral variants are now more contagious than last summer, and on the other hand, vaccination is protecting an increasing number of potentially infected people.”
The rapid decline in fall values in the past few weeks will inevitably slow, even if the numbers have been declining dramatically for a while. Exponential regression starts quickly and becomes slower and slower. In addition, falling falls were accompanied by opening steps, which in turn would lead to additional connections and thus potential transport routes. “Since the virus is not expected to be completely eradicated in the foreseeable future, sooner or later the exponential trend will break, even in the best-case scenario, and the infection rate will fluctuate around a low level,” Forman said.
In particular, the transmissibility of virus variants combined with protection against vaccination and contacts between potentially infected persons will have a strong impact on the infection process and make modeling difficult.
Furman emphasized that even with low infection values, individual outbreaks can certainly cause localized outbreaks. For example, he cited the coronavirus outbreak in a meat factory in the Gutersloh region last summer. The example of Great Britain shows that “a combination of far-reaching inaugural steps and renewed mutations can lead to a renewed increase in the number of cases despite the fact that vaccination coverage is already high and the number of infections has decreased seasonally.”
Autumn forecast is not possible yet. “That would only be a guess,” Foreman confirms. Many of the terms of the framework are still unknown. For example, how many people will be vaccinated by then? How long does vaccination protection maintain its maximum effectiveness? What types of new viruses will evolve? Will individual hygiene measures continue to be maintained – whether through regulations or through individual behaviour? “A certain increase in the number of cases is expected, but it is not entirely clear whether this will be comparable to last fall’s values.”
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