February 23, 2024

Watch out, Germany! – Britons who left the European Union are catching up with the economy | Policy

Brexiteers, of all people!

Will the UK soon surpass the Germans in economic power?

In a new study, the London-based Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that Great Britain will become the best-performing major economy in Europe over the next 15 years. The gap with Germany will decrease and England's lead over the French will increase.

This is after leaving the European Union, which, according to the warnings of all experts, would set the British economy back decades.

The 10 largest economies today and in 15 years

2023 2038
United States of America China
China United States of America
Germany India
Japan Japan
India Germany
Great Britain Great Britain
France France
Italy Brazil
Brazil Korea
Canada Canada
Source: Center for Economic and Business Research

Alarming: According to calculations by CEBR experts, Germany will fall from the current third place among the strongest economic countries to fifth place by 2038. India and Japan will overtake Germany (in third and fourth places, respectively). Great Britain will retain sixth place, with record growth of 1.6 to 1.8 percent per year.

The UK will grow faster than the four major eurozone economies – France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

According to CEBR, there will also be a change at the top of the most economically powerful countries: China is expected to displace the United States from first to second place starting in 2037.

The British economy has suffered from weak productivity growth since the financial crisis (2008/2009). Labor supply problems have also emerged in recent years. This has led the Bank of England to become more pessimistic about the UK's growth prospects over the coming years.

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This is now matched by the forecasts of CEBR analysts: “The fundamentals of the UK economy remain very strong,” said Pushpin Singh, chief economist at CEBR.

We can look forward to successful years for the British economy: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (43)

Photography: Vincenzo Nozzolisi/DPA

London's position as a center for financial and advisory services will remain and, combined with the overall strength of the services sector across the UK, will drive British growth.

Singh's conclusion was that the economic impacts of Brexit “have either been exaggerated or have not yet been adequately considered”.