March 2, 2024

The analysis predicts a strong shift to the right in the European elections

In Germany, the shift to the right is particularly evident in the AfD's very good results in opinion polls.Image: Cornerstone

According to new analysis, the European elections scheduled for June are likely to lead to a strong shift to the right in many countries. Right-wing populist parties will gain votes and seats in the European Union, while center-left parties and the Greens will lose them, according to forecasts published by the European Council on Foreign Relations on Wednesday.

The analysis is based, among other things, on the results of national election polls and the parties' share of the vote in the recent national parliamentary elections. According to the information, it also takes into account whether the parties are currently in the government or in the opposition, what large political family the parties belong to, and how long ago it was since the last parliamentary elections.

According to the assessment, populists critical of Europe are likely to advance in nine EU countries – including France, Italy, Poland and Austria. In another nine of the 27 EU member states, right-wing parties will finish in second or third place – including the AfD in Germany.

According to forecasts, the two largest political groups in the European Parliament – the Christian Democratic Party (EPP) family and the Social Democrats (S&D) – are likely to lose their seats, but can still form a majority with the Liberals and Greens. “This reflects the long-term decline in support for major parties and growing support for extreme and minor parties across Europe,” the authors explain. This leads to increased fragmentation of European party systems at both national and European levels. He added that if the elections take place as expected by the think tank, this could have far-reaching consequences for the European Union's political agenda.

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The European elections are scheduled to take place on June 9. In Germany, voters aged 16 or over can cast a ballot. (DAP/EPA)

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