Simulation shows how quickly global warming will suffocate the planet!

For the first time, researchers have discovered the full, uncontrolled process of global warming simulation And I discovered that there is a fine line between an idyllic paradise and uninhabitable horror.

With global help 3D climate model Astronomers discovered that the difference could only be a few degrees in the early stages of the process Significant changes in the structure of the planet's atmosphere and cloud cover Displays.

On Earth they found out A small increase in the Sun's brightness would be enough to trigger this unstoppable process and render the planet uninhabitable.. This would only require an increase in global temperature of a few tens of degrees.

“Until now, the most important studies in climatology have focused exclusively on the temperate state before escape or the habitable state after escape,” said study co-author Martin Torbett. Stady He is a researcher at the French National Center for Scientific Research.

“It is the first time that a team has studied the transformation process itself using a 3D global climate model and investigated how the climate and atmosphere evolved during this process,” he said.

Balancing water vapor content

Venus is a good example A planet with an uncontrolled greenhouse effect. Its dense, suffocating atmosphere is pumped with carbon dioxide, which helps retain heat and keep surface temperatures at average 464°C To rise. This makes Venus the hottest planet in the solar system.

Although this looks very different than it does on Earth, it doesn't seem like it would take much to give us a similar fate.

It is stored as a natural greenhouse gas Water vapor provides heat to the Earth Like a blanket in the atmosphere. Without it our planet would freeze.

but Too much water vapor could put the planet on a dangerous pathIncreasing heat leads to more evaporation from the oceans, releasing more water vapor into the atmosphere — a process that researchers say is very difficult to stop once it starts.

Strange cloud patterns

By modeling the same scenario on small, rocky planets like Earth, the researchers observed how the early stages of uncontrolled global warming changed the properties of the atmosphere. A. was created Very strange cloud pattern.

“Since the beginning of the transition period, we can observe that some very dense clouds are forming in the upper atmosphere,” said Guillaume Chaverot, lead author of the study. “Thermal reflectivity of the Earth's atmosphere, which separates two main layers, the troposphere and the stratosphere, no longer actually exists. The structure of the atmosphere has changed profoundly“, he added.

Researchers say so This discovery is important for studying the climate of other planets, especially exoplanets, where the search for habitable conditions is a fundamental aspect. But they also underscore the importance of the Earth at a time when temperatures are rising rapidly around the world.

“Assuming this uncontrolled process began on land, evaporation at just 10 meters above the ocean surface would result in a one-bar increase in atmospheric pressure at ground level,” Chavirot said. “In just a few hundred years, we will reach Earth temperatures of more than 500 degrees Celsius,” he added.

Therefore, one of the main goals of the team's future research will be to investigate whether human-produced greenhouse gases could lead to an uncontrolled greenhouse effect, similar to that caused by increased sun brightness.

Source note:

Chavirot, J.; Polmont, E.; Torbet, M. First exploration of runaway global warming transition using a 3D general circulation model. Astronomy and astrophysics, Fifth. 680, 2023.