Drought: Crop forecasts lowered in the European Union

The EU’s umbrella trade organization for grains, Coceral, is reducing total cereal production (bread and feed grains as well as maize) from 305.5 million in the June forecast for EU-27 and the United Kingdom (UK) compared to the March forecast, to 296.7 million tonnes.

However, this is still 291.1 million tons more than the lower-yielding previous year.

pronounced in the north

The Grain Trade Association cites the current drought in the northern half of the European Union as the main reason for the lower yield expectations across the Union – significant in Sweden, Denmark and the Baltic states in particular. For the EU alone, Coceral lowered the forecast by 7 million tons.

Forecasts were also lowered for Germany and Spain as recent rains on wheat and barley were delayed. Accordingly, the forecast for the former 28th European Union for common wheat is 142.4 million tons (March: 144.5 million tons), and in 2022 it is 142.5 million tons. It is expected that the volume of barley will reach 56.6 million tons (March: 59.6 million tons), compared to 59.3 million tons in the previous year.

Corn and canola rebound in the previous year

A recovery in maize production is now seen at 61.3 million tons, after 62.3 million tons in March but only 52.5 million tons in 2022. Above all, the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria should be able to hope for a bigger harvest much corn.

Rapeseed production from the European Union and the United Kingdom is expected to be 21.0 million tonnes, which is broadly on par with the March release (21.1 million tonnes) and last year’s (21.0 million tonnes). Although acreage has seen a slight expansion, yields will be slightly lower than those in 2022. If drought continues in northern EU regions into July, prospects for rapeseed crops could deteriorate further.

Drought withers Spain’s crops

For Spain, which is also suffering from drought, the March forecast put the grain harvest at 20 million tons, now it’s only 12 million tons. Hungary (+5 million tons) as well as France (+3 million tons), Italy (+2 million tons) and Romania (+3 million tons) should be able to look forward to increasing yields.