Does the viral mutation jeopardize a return to normal?

virus mutation

How Delta proves itself in Europe and thus jeopardizes a return to normal life

At its press conference on Tuesday, BAG announced that the delta variant, which was first discovered in India, is progressing in Switzerland. Switzerland is not alone in this: Deltas are threatening to return to normal across Europe.

The delta variable could delay the return to normal life in Europe.

Keystone

What is the percentage of delta cases in Switzerland?

BAG currently estimates the proportion at around 10 percent. In mid-June the appraised value was still 5 per cent. That will double in less than two weeks. At Point de Presse on Tuesday, Patrick Mathis, head of crisis management at BAG, warned accordingly of a “significant increase” in delta cases.

The reasons for this are probably the neglect of protective measures. “Especially when walking away from you, wearing a mask, shaking hands and greeting rituals,” canton doctor Rudolf Horie told the press conference.

How is it in the rest of Europe?

Great Britain currently ranks first in terms of delta. More than 90 percent of all new infections out there are due to the new delta variant. It took Delta less than two months to achieve this quota. For comparison: the alpha variant, which first appeared in Great Britain, took more than three months.

Red represents alpha, and green delta.

Red represents alpha, and green delta.

But Delta is also ahead in other European countries. The tribe has already established itself in Portugal. Last weekend, the Portuguese government had to send the capital, Lisbon, to another lockdown.

Red represents alpha, and green delta.

Red represents alpha, and green delta.

Moscow also had to return to lockdown. Here, too, the Delta company prevailed and ensured a significant increase in the number of cases. About 90 percent can be attributed to delta. Record numbers of new infections have been reported. According to the city administration, the number of cases has tripled in the past two weeks, with 9,120 new cases reported in the city of 12 million people on Saturday.

In Germany, one is still a little far from these values, yet the same pattern can be seen here too: at the beginning of June, the proportion of the Delta tribe doubled in just one week. At the time it was six percent, but now the percentage is likely to be much higher.

In certain regions of France and Spain, the proportion of the delta variable is already 20 to 30 percent, such as “Crown – Anzeiger” mentioned. “It is not a question of whether Delta will become the leading alternative, but when,” said the head of the Robert Koch Institute in Germany last week.

Alpha, beta, delta – what role do they play, and the number of cases is declining?

This is still true for Switzerland at the moment. And with the proportion of delta cases, caution is advised when the number of cases decreases, as this can distort the overall picture.

But the examples of Great Britain, Moscow and Lisbon show that the tide can turn quickly. In addition to closings in Russia British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced last week that he would postpone his so-called “Freedom Day” by a month. This is after data showed that the delta variant increased the risk of hospitalization by two times compared to the alpha variant.

Don’t Delta Vaccines Work?

Yes. The problem is that Delta is spreading faster than Europe offers vaccines. So we’re in a race against mutations.

to me Investigation The NHS also depends on whether a person has received just one or both doses. For mRNA vaccines, efficacy against delta is 33 percent after the first dose, and increases to 88 percent with two doses.

In Switzerland, only 30% of the population is fully vaccinated. Another 17 percent received the first dose. The situation is similar in other European countries. If the delta variant becomes prevalent in Switzerland, Germany, France or Spain in the next few weeks, an increase in the number of cases is also expected in these countries. Especially if more relaxation comes into play at the same time.

A slowdown in delta spread and therefore an adjustment of the vaccination rate can only be achieved if the population continues to adhere to the usual precautionary measures.

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