runningAndrew Hayward, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University of London (UCL) and a member of the Emergencies Scientific Advisory Group (Sage), told Radio Times that opening schools, reopening businesses and loosening social norms “are big steps“ we don’t really understand ”its impact on transmission. “
In his personal capacity, he said that there are “a very large number of people” who “are in danger of ending up in hospital and dying.”
“And it will stay that way for a while. Although vaccines are clearly crossing limits and preventing us from getting hundreds of thousands of cases, there are still ways for us to treat tens of thousands of cases in hospital. And much more.” Of deaths if we relax too quickly. “
He said he agreed that there should be a five-week period between the steps and that it was “right to take this cautious approach,” adding, “It took a long time to figure this out, and I think it is time to move back to a closer. Risky approach.”
In response to a question about the increase in the number of infections during the winter season, he said: “For example, the vaccine should eliminate the possibility that this increase will lead to more than 100,000 deaths. I think this is unlikely … It is very likely that we are talking about tens of thousands.” Of deaths, and we hope that there will be tens of thousands of deaths.
“This sounds horrific, but in reality it is not much different from what we tolerate every year with influenza and other respiratory infections.”