Winter air, spring scent, western weather, split polar vortex

The temperatures in the coming days will be closer to spring than in winter and in some places it cannot be ruled out exceeding the +15 degree mark. The chances of a winter over Germany also depend on whether the polar vortex can stabilize or whether it experiences more disruption.

sGusty winds will drive cold air masses over the northern hemisphere for the next few days. On Tuesday and Thursday in particular, gusty winds can be expected to reach the flatlands, over exposed sites and coastal areas. strong winds Possible (wind forecast).

Unusually high temperatures

The winds not only push a lot of clouds and temporary rain over Germany, but they also bring unusually temperate air masses into Germany from southwest directions. So by the end of the week +10 to +15 degrees and in the west it can reach +17 degrees. Even New Year’s Eve will be unusually mild with +8 to +12 degrees. More information: January weather.

weather forecast According to the European (left) and American (right) weather models: this does not appear to be the beginning of winter at the beginning of the year.
© www.meteociel.fr

Weather forecast according to the European Weather Model: The axis of high pressure is tilted inside the polar vortex

the weather forecast Compared to yesterday, the European turns 180 degrees, the origin of which is in the polar vortex and which we have already indicated.

High pressure zone between Siberia and Canada

At first it looks as if a high pressure wedge over Europe and another around the Aleutians will meet at the end of the year. But the merger failed and the high penetration is more into the polar vortex than the Aleutian Islands. But differently from yesterday, Europeans take into account today weather forecast Training hub between Canada and Siberia. The conclusion from this development is clear and accurate.

penetration of the frontal area of ​​the Atlantic Ocean

If you want to know how things are going in winter over Germany in January, you should consider zoning, which will start over the next week, but then stutter Device. Is it about creating a sustainable area or at least another one? quick emotionIt has also been frequently observed in the past 21 months.

With the high pressure zone between Siberia and Canada, Europeans make an argument in favor of the sustainability of Western weather and allow it to continue into the first decade of January. Cold air masses are transported to Canada and flow over eastern Canada towards Newfoundland.

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This causes one depression after another to occur on the Atlantic, causing a rush towards Germany and thus creating a stable low pressure channel on the Atlantic. This is what is meant by sustainability and Europeans today are showing very clearly how slowly time is running out.

The high pressure zone between Siberia and Canada is fueled by western weather
weather forecast According to the European Weather Model: The area of ​​high pressure between Siberia and Canada is fueling western weather
© www.meteociel.fr

Weather forecast based on the US weather model: An unusual polar vortex split

The polar vortex split shape is still being simulated, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the onset of winter over Europe.

The polar vortex is splitting in the new year

However, the polar vortex split greatly improves the chances of winter weather conditions, as the cards are essentially modified with the split. The turbulent way this can happen is shown in a file weather forecast Today’s American is very impressive.

From January 1 to 3, a high pressure core expands from the Aleutian Islands to the polar vortex and connects to the top of the European Arctic Ocean. Axis connection between Canada and Siberia would not be possible. By January 5, the axis will recede to the north and rotate in the direction of Canada, while at the same time the search for contact with Siberia is underway. The summit is at a critical point.

By January 7, high atmospheric pressure will increase over the Aleutian Islands and will form a wedge in the direction of Siberia – through the polar vortex. Was it just a matter of approach before? PolaroidPlus SplitsThis will be held on January 7. Polar vortices initially attempt to counter this development, but fail miserably and turn into one January tenth completely desolate impression.

Winter becomes optional from central locations onwards

The weather is dominated by the western main stream directed over Germany, Austria and Switzerland, bringing gale-force winds and precipitation temporarily until January 7. With +5 to +10 degrees, temperatures are very mild at this time of year. That changes as the polar vortex splits. The area is sleeping and the general weather condition begins to meander. Cold air masses arrive in Germany from the north, and until January 10, with cold and wet values ​​u200bu200bfrom +0 to +5 degrees from the central locations, winter weather phenomena can be expected.

The different stages of the polar vortex split
weather forecast According to the US weather model: the different phases of the polar vortex split
© www.meteociel.fr

In short: first light, then wet and cold

The softening comes and peaks with temperatures of +8 degrees at 1,400m between December 30 and January 3. This shows how comprehensive the mitigation is to higher elevations.

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After that, the control operations calculate a decrease in the temperature level, which is quite high, but the average value of the control operations remains at an altitude of 1400 m at +0 to +2 degrees until January 7th. This is still very moderate for this time of year. Only at the end of the first ten days of January did the control operations show signs of normalization. In other words, the first ten days of January can be very warm. In terms of temperatures, the average value at lower altitudes at the beginning of January fluctuates between +8 and +12 degrees, on January 7 between +4 and +6 degrees and on January 11 between +2 and +6 degrees. Cool, humid, and not too wintery style.

There is no stable evolution of the weather

Gravure printing is likely to dominate December 27-30 and January 3-10. In the interval, an average rise with a dry phase becomes noticeable.

On the left is the warm beginning of the year, and on the right is the direction of cold and wet weather
weather forecast According to the average of all control cycles: on the left, the warm beginning of the year, and on the right the subsequent trend of wet and cold weather
© www.meteociel.fr
Temperature forecast for control operations
logo card temperature spectrum average temperature value
January 1 +6 to
+16 grad
+8 to
+10 grad
January 5 +0 to
+12 grad
+5 to
+7 grad
10. January -6 to
+10 grad
+2 to
+5 grad
January 2021 temperature chart
Control odds for January 2021 to be too cold, normal, too warm compared to the long-term average (1961 to 1990)

Whether the polar vortex splits in weather prediction Confirmed or denied, we’ll explain this evening around 8:15 PM in an update to the winter forecast at this point.

Update the weather forecast as of 8:08 pm.

the weather forecast The American confirmed the polar vortex split during the day, which began on January 2 and culminated on January 5.

A splitting of the polar vortex around Europe does not necessarily lead to the onset of winter, as is particularly evident in tonight’s forecast.

The polar vortex splits uneven winter weather

The split occurs between the Aleutian Islands and Greenland and does not extend into the Atlantic Ocean. Against this background, the Atlantic frontal area can change and act as if nothing happened until January 5th and lead to Germany with gale winds, lots of clouds, some rain and moderate air masses.

From January 5 to 8, the axis of high pressure tilts inside the polar vortex and strengthens the connection from the Aleutian Islands to Siberia. This process effectively flings the remainder of the polar vortex toward Canada and revives the Atlantic frontal region, which maintains the potential for strong wind events over Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Only at the end of the first ten days of January does the flow pattern begin to meander and enable the character of cool, wet weather at lower altitudes with winter ambitions from mid-latitudes.

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At first, the details are of little importance. It is more important to that weather trend At the moment, how the area will prevail and what severity. Such a polar vortex split is a strong signal that the sustainability of Western weather can be called into question. Should the polar vortex split, there will be some surprises in the coming days weather trend Prediction models can recognize them.

The polar vortex phases split on January 4 (left), January 8 (Wednesday), and January 11 (right)
weather forecast According to the US weather model: the phases of the polar vortex are divided into January 4 (left), January 8 (Wednesday), and January 11 (right)
© www.meteociel.fr

marginal factors

At the beginning of the new year, a strong slight warming at the stratospheric level is still expected, but this cannot develop into a significant warming. The effect on the weather in the lower air layers remains less likely. At least – one might think – the global warming approach is maintained. Wind speeds remain very positive at stratospheric heights from +140 to +180 km/h. Wind reversal – in the current situation – is unrecognizable.

The value of the AO index, which – quite simply – describes the state of the polar vortex, is calculated exactly in the negative range. Positive signs have been withdrawn in the past few days. What does that mean? Basically what Americans emulate. Weak to turbulent polar vortex with a tendency towards polar vortex cleavage.

The coefficient, the most important for Europe – the NAO indicator – showed a slightly positive trend in January, indicating a greater likelihood of a fundamental trend dominated by the West.

The trend of cold and wet weather

If one looks at the mean value of all control processes, the temperate phase is confirmed until January 3 with subsequent wet and cold weather and increased precipitation activity. Winter weather remains optional from central locations.

On the left is a slight warming, which is of little importance for the weather, with approaching a significant warming, on the right is the average value for the control processes
weather forecast After the individual control is turned on: the winter variants of the control will continue until the 4th of January
© www.meteociel.fr

European weather forecast

Finally, a quick look at weather forecast From the European weather model. Only a polar vortex split has been hinted at, but this morning’s main difference is clearly visible. Elevation falls west and starts disrupting zoning before it can even pick up speed.

On the left is a slight warming, which is of little importance for the weather, with approaching a significant warming, on the right is the average value for the control processes
weather forecast After the individual control is turned on: the winter variants of the control will continue until the 4th of January
© www.meteociel.fr

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