Switzerland begins the summer of 2023 with pleasant temperatures, and a meteorologist explains what to expect from the weather in the coming months.
no time? Blue News sums it up for you
- Met summer begins today.
- June, July and August are expected to be warmer than normal.
- However, long-term projections should be approached with caution and should not be used for vacation planning.
May 2023 wasn’t at least as rainy as it felt: despite the many rainy days in the first half of the month, precipitation totals in many places remained in the range of the 1991 to 2020 standard or even lower.
However, spring felt somewhat rainy and cool.
But that’s over now. From a meteorological perspective, summer officially begins on June 1st. The only question is: what does he bring to Switzerland?
Of course, there is no concrete way to predict whether it will fall into the water or whether heat waves will dry the country out. But meteorologists already know one simple thing: thanks to the long-term seasonal forecast. These should not be confused with – and are not as reliable as – normal weather forecasts for the coming days. But a certain trend can certainly be identified with it.
Summer gets pretty warm, but that’s nothing special
“In seasonal forecasts, probable climatic developments for the coming months are simulated in combinations. From this it is derived how likely it is that a very hot, cold, very wet or very dry season will follow, in each case compared to the climatic mean ». to explain Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss).
In the summer that starts today white “Tages-Anzeiger”, in Central Europe “is likely to have a higher mean temperature than the long-term average climate”. In other words: an unbearably cold summer. It will likely be warmer than normal.
Meteorologist Roger Perrett of the MeteoNews weather service doesn’t trust such long-term forecasts. In an interview with Blue News, he said: “Basically, long-term forecasts are just trends that cannot be used to make any concrete statements. In addition, trends are not uniform in most cases.”
All that can be said is: “In the long-term forecast, summers are calculated as very warm compared to the long-term average. But this is nothing special: in recent years all seasons have actually been very warm, with very few exceptions.” Whether the summer will be half a degree or a degree too warm, or even two degrees, is of course not yet known: “But the average temperature is likely to change within that range.”
What do you think the summer will be like?
Huge variation in models
MeteoSwiss also qualifies that “the quality and applicability of long-term forecasts for Switzerland remains limited to specific occupational applications”. Perret explains that in long-range forecasting, complex physical equations are used to simulate what is already calculated in normal weather forecasts. “It gets quite messy at some point, which is why it’s hard to make a concrete statement.”
Computational models are reaching their limits, especially when it comes to long-term precipitation forecasts. “Tages-Anzeiger” does not see “indications of a clear drought” nor “a rainy summer with widespread flooding, as happened in 2021.”
Roger Perret considers that predicting average precipitation in the summer of 2023 would be very bold. “It is really difficult to predict. The variance in the models is very large. Some assume a lot of thunderstorms, while others expect longer dry periods.”
In any case, vacations should not be planned based on long-term expectations. The weather in certain places and at certain times is unpredictable in the long run. Pierrette’s conclusion: “It is likely that the summer will be very warm compared to the long-term average, but that is normal in a period of global warming. Everything else will show.”
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