July 16, 2024

The science of one eye – the focus of goodness.  ACHGUT.COM

The science of one eye – the focus of goodness. ACHGUT.COM

The ideological worldview does not make science ignore many questions, but makes it one-eyed and only allows it to clarify some phenomena to a limited extent. Example.

For once, not as part of an internet search, but quite traditionally in the weekly WamS column By the economist Professor Dr. Tomas Maier, I came across a rather cool study. It deals with the question of how global warming will affect the economic development of the countries of this world – more precisely: how the expected temperature changes in the coming decades will affect the real reality. Per capita gross domestic product will affect. So it is called a modeling study.

At its core, modeling is about solving a real-world, complex problem using mathematics. In detail, this has a lot to do with equations, describing growth processes or geometric relationships using functions, and of course with probability arithmetic. Indeed, it is not human power to penetrate complex, interwoven and dynamic situations in all their branches and ramifications. With the use of more and more powerful computers and more complex mathematical procedures, this fundamental problem has certainly been weakened, but by no means eliminated. Therefore, the forecaster is always advised to shift his forecast horizon to the future as far as possible. This is one of the reasons why the beginning of the next century is so popular as a prediction end point. It remains to be seen how fundamentally the quality or accuracy of economic forecasts on more complex issues rank over several years or even decades.

climate and prosperity

in Interesting American study here It is assumed that the relationship between temperature and economic productivity is not linear but rather nonlinear: productivity does not simply decrease with increasing temperature and increases with decreasing temperature, or vice versa, but there is a temperature boundary of about 13°C. . Until the average annual temperature is this high, productivity increases with each higher temperature. On the other hand, an average annual temperature of more than 13 °C has a less favorable effect on productivity with each degree. This is of course positive news for the countries of Northern and Central Europe. After all, the average annual temperature is delayed World Bank data For 2021, for example, in Sweden at 3.0, in Germany at 9.5C and even in France only at 11.6C, the USA should also be well prepared with 10.0C, but less so as India with 25.0 , and Singapore with 27.7 or, for example, and Togo with 28.1 degrees Celsius.

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But the good news for Germany does not end there. Even assuming a completely unrealistic worst-case scenario RCP8.5 – With a further increase in temperature of nearly 4°C by 2100 – Germany can still expect a temperature-related increase in productivity of up to 1.7%, and Sweden up to 4.3%. If an economic policy based on reason rather than ideology is implemented in Germany, one can look forward to further economic development – despite climate change – in a particularly relaxed manner, perhaps even partly viewed as a position of advantage.

Singapore and Togo

But for the countries of the so-called “Global South”, things do not look so rosy. India, for example, will have to put up with a loss of 8.5 percent, while warmer tropical countries like Singapore or Africa’s Togo will have to expect more bloodshed than their GNP. But, and now we’re approaching the weak point of the interesting modeling study here: Is it really justified to group countries like Singapore and Togo together in terms of the economic consequences of further warming? Refers to the previous real development of Singapore and Togo – no doubt Extreme group comparison – perhaps as an example indicating a serious problem with this modeling, namely, that some criteria that contribute significantly to the economic success of a country are not taken into account? What if the question after Why not? ensues.

When Singapore and Togo gained independence in the 1960s, they had a GDP ratio of about 6:1. It is now at 49:1 and Singapore in the GDP (purchasing power-adjusted) ranking is second in the world, and Togo is in 175th place. Some were clearly much better than others – despite the average temperature which was also supposed to be a productivity handicap. What was it and what are the reasons for that?

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Knowledge capitalism

The research branch titled “Knowledge Capitalism” provides basic answers to this question. One of the champions in this field is Heiner Rindermann, Professor of Educational and Developmental Psychology at Chemnitz University of Technology. He has about it, among other things This article And in 2018 it was massive study Presenter. There is also an interesting one in German interview with him.

Not surprisingly to the ideologically unfettered scientist or interested contemporary, Rindermann and his colleagues succeeded in demonstrating—among other things on the basis of a sample of 90 countries—that the psychological trait of intelligence is closely related to the prosperity or gross national product of nations. It is unimportant whether IQ is calculated based on intelligence or standardized school performance tests, because both methods of measurement are closely related to each other and scored at the end. Same build.

Even more than the average cognitive level, the relative proportion of cognitive ability in particular determines the prosperity of nations. In addition, the higher the cognitive level, the greater the economic freedom of the nation, which in turn contributes positively to prosperity. Then the knowledge circle closes that rich countries can invest more money in education than poor countries.

Rindermann explains that “intelligence and knowledge contribute to people working with fewer errors, mastering the most demanding tasks at work and in everyday life, and being able to develop new products at the forefront of technological and scientific development.” The national average IQ between, say, Togo and Singapore is more than 30 points, which is a good two standard deviations. This very important difference likely explains part or all of the very different development of prosperity between Singapore and Togo, and accounts for many comparisons between other countries.

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With this scientific background, it is hard to believe that the economic impact of further warming should be independent of the epistemic make-up of individual countries. Countries with a high knowledge potential are very likely to cope better with the economic challenges associated with warming than countries with the worst. As the Traffic Light Coalition currently teaches us, this is by no means a mechanism, especially since various cultural factors are also important – which are not considered below.

dominant worldview

The question therefore arises as to why the modeling study discussed at the beginning did not include the readily available cognitive parameters of individual states in its analysis. The answer is not difficult these days, because such research, in Professor Renderman’s words again, “violates the worldview of empirical universalism prevalent in universities, in the media and also on Wikipedia, which implies that all people and groups of people in their basic characteristics are the same.” Such an ideological worldview does not make science blind to many questions, but it makes it one-eyed and allows it to clarify some phenomena only to a limited extent. Necessities causal mechanisms or risk factors It is simply no longer considered or actively suppressed, only to fall victim to somewhat oblivion, surrounded by censorship and personal deprivation.

Mr. Dr. Diplomatic medical. Wolfgang Means He is a neuropsychologist, psychiatrist and neuroscientist, geriatrician and assistant professor of psychiatry. In recent years he has been mainly active as a forensic expert in the field of civil law.