Population growth could be halted as early as 2040

The Earth4All initiative is led by the Club of Rome, the Norwegian Business School and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Its goal is to develop transformative political and economic solutions for the 21st century that can achieve sustainable development within the borders of the planet.

In the first of their projections, “Too little, too late,” population and the economy will grow more slowly until 2050, peaking at about 8.6 billion around 2046 and 7.3 by 2100 shrinking billions of people. “Current economic growth trajectories are already sufficient to halt global population growth by mid-century,” said Beniamino Callegari, Earth4All modeling team member.

If there is a greater focus on fighting poverty and improving gender equality, the population could peak as early as 2040, at about 8.5 billion people. According to this “giant leap” scenario, there will be only about 6 billion people left on Earth in the year 2100.

Economic development affects the number of births

said Katharina Haines, executive director of Berlin Institute for Population and Development. It represents, so to speak, an acceleration of the first scenario, when the world population reaches its maximum depends above all on how countries with particularly high birth rates develop. If the living conditions there improve, the increase decreases.