New IPCC report: Forecasts aren’t nicer, but they’re more accurate

my knowledge

Status: 07/25/2021 4:54 PM

On Monday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will begin its last meeting on the new status report. Representatives of almost 200 countries together with scientists summarize the current state of research.

The IPCC reports are like broth cubes: You can’t eat them directly, but a lot of soup is made from them. Every few years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change summarizes the current state of science. 230 leading researchers are the lead authors of the current volume – their first draft was annotated by the entire scientific world and revised in several rounds.

The first working group, which will complete its work in the next two weeks, deals with the scientific basis. What do we know, and where and where is climate change heading in this century? The most cliched answer has long been clear: Climate change is here. In Germany, the German Weather Service measures 1.6 degrees above pre-industrial times.

Short version for politicians

It is man-made – all natural fluctuations cannot explain this effect – and if this continues, it will lead us globally towards a three-degree increase in temperature. The IPCC does not create new knowledge, but rather summarizes existing knowledge and comments on the summary. Details fill thousands of pages. This scientific version of the report has already been completed and will not be touched upon anymore.

But it is too complicated for practical policy. Politicians want clearly understood rules for their decisions. That’s why they founded the Climate Council in 1988 as an intergovernmental association. It is for this reason that a “summary for policy makers” is now being prepared from this scholarly work.

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Organization (Unep) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its mission is to impartially inform politicians of scientific findings on climate change and possible countermeasures. 195 countries belong to the IPCC.

Even if the IPCC has been quietly working most of the time to gather the latest findings on climate change from a large number of studies and statistics, its reports continue to provide important drivers in the climate debate. IPCC reports are compiled by thousands of scientists, including climate and marine researchers, statisticians, economists and health experts. The IPCC does not conduct its own research on climate change, but evaluates thousands of studies and summarizes key findings from them. The studies used generally went through what’s called a peer review process – that is, they were evaluated by other scientists.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change consists of three working groups: one presents scientific findings on climate change, the second group highlights the consequences of global warming, and the third shows options for action. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change publishes comprehensive overviews of the current state of climate research every five to six years.

Previous reports have been verified

Because the IPCC sits on the edge between science and politics, this short version was produced jointly by the two groups. Scholars suggest that government representatives ask questions and encourage them. The influence of state interests is indisputable at this point – but it is now also understandable to the public online. Anyone who wants to see exactly why can change their post.

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Even if many of the messages from these reports sound familiar — or simply “outdated” — the data behind them is becoming more and more accurate. W: So far, that hasn’t made the outlook any better. A fact that is not against the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – rather against those who called it.

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