December 8, 2023

International repercussions of Raisi's victory in Iranian elections |  Asia |  DW

International repercussions of Raisi’s victory in Iranian elections | Asia | DW

Iranians do not know conservative presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi. He was jointly responsible for many of the atrocities that followed the Islamic Revolution four decades ago, including the mass executions of political prisoners during the 1980s. Raisi has been Iran’s chief justice since 2019. Now he can emerge victorious in Friday’s presidential election.

To win the first ballot, my boss needs an absolute majority. He can hardly achieve this majority because many Iranians who are disillusioned with politics want to stay away from the polls. According to the latest poll, only 23 million out of 59 million eligible voters plan to vote. Therefore, it is enough for Ebrahim Raisi to vote for him by twelve million Iranians.

Unknown volume on the international stage

“Many observers are expecting a major victory in the elections,” Middle East expert Sanam Wakil said in an interview with Deutsche Welle. Wakil is Deputy Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House think tank in the UK. She believes that a Raisi victory in the elections will put the Europeans in a difficult position. Raisi has been on the EU and US sanctions lists since 2019 for human rights violations during the 2019 nationwide protests.

Ebrahim Raisi (right) will answer to the religious leader Khamenei (left) as president

Internationally, my main is a whiteboard, agent believes. “His positions on important regional and international issues are not really known. So I think that European countries, especially France, Germany and the United Kingdom, should treat him with caution and at the same time as one,” he added.

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Possible continuity between the Rouhani and Raisi governments

Although Raisi was highly critical of the 2015 international nuclear deal, he emphasized during the election campaign, like all other candidates, that he wanted to stick to the agreement. He knows that within the framework of his governmental responsibility as president, he has to take into account the poor economic situation in the country. This would improve if the United States returned to the agreement and the associated lifting of sanctions.

Rouhani’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Sarif is currently leading the Iranian delegation to international talks in Vienna to revive the nuclear deal. So far, the Iranians have only indirectly exchanged information with the Americans via representatives of the European Union. However, many observers assume that Sarif, on behalf of the religious leader, will conclude the talks before the next Iranian president takes office in August.

Indirect nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States

Indirect nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States continue

According to Iranian journalists, Sarif is also accused of campaigning on the sidelines of the Vienna talks to remove Ibrahim Raisi from the EU and US sanctions lists.

“Iran’s policy must be based on realism and values”

Commitment to the nuclear deal alone will not be enough for the international community, says Free Democratic Party (FDP) member of the Bundestag and member of the Foreign Affairs Committee Bijan Geirsaray in an interview with Deutsche Welle. “The nuclear deal with Iran only makes sense if additional agreements are passed, for example on Iran’s role in the region and on Iran’s missile program.”

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According to current opinion polls, Geirsaray, the Free Democratic Party, could belong to the next German government as a coalition party after the federal elections in September. Gir Saray has clear ideas about how to deal with Iran: “I would recommend the European Union, as well as the German Federal Government, to pursue an interest-based policy toward Iran, but also a value-oriented policy. This means first of all the destructive role of confronting Iran in the region and at the same time Condemning the flagrant violations of human rights in Iran.