Heat in Germany: what is the temperature in? – knowledge

Taking a look at the weather app these days is a good opportunity to learn the difference between model calculations, forecasts, and reality. Meanwhile, individual models calculated up to 45 degrees Celsius for individual regions in Germany, which would have been more than three degrees higher than the previous record of 41.2 degrees. Statistically speaking, it is almost unbelievable, and these records are usually exceeded in tenths of a degree; The fact that the maximum valid value for 2019 is approximately one degree higher than the temperature record of 40.3 degrees that has been valid for years is considered an unusual anomaly.

In the end, it shouldn’t be that bad, and given the fact that people and nature are experiencing extreme heat waves, this is very good news. However, according to forecasts, the upcoming heat will still be significant. on Sunday The German weather service DWD has calculated For Mondays in the West and Southwest with temperatures as high as 36 degrees, the heat can only peak on Tuesday. After that it should be clear almost all over Germany, temperatures should rise to 35 degrees. In the southwest and west it can reach “locally up to 40 degrees”, for example in the Rhine-Main region or in the Moselle. 39 degrees is also possible at the Lower Main in Bavaria. Only in the north it remains a little colder, with up to 34 degrees in the northeast and 22 to 29 degrees on the coasts. Good for those who have already started their vacation in the Baltic Sea.

In the west, the heat of the day is likely to follow a tropical night in many places, as low as 23 degrees, in the southeast, however, the temperature sometimes drops as low as 13 degrees Celsius at night. On Wednesday it will be cooler again in large parts of Germany, while the focus of the heat will shift to the east and southeast, with 33 to 37 degrees then being announced.

A cold front on Wednesday brings cold but little rain

The relatively short but intense heat wave is controlled by Hoch Jurgen, which prevents the formation of clouds over Germany and heats the air. As it turns eastward from Monday, it will draw in hot air from the subtropics in the back, along with a low-pressure basin over France. Only on Wednesday the cold front moves between air masses over West Germany and brings cooling there, but there is probably a little much-needed rain in the form of individual showers and thunderstorms because the air mass is so dry.

There may be new UK temperature records in the coming days, for example, as the UK Met Office for Monday and Tuesday The red alert level was issued for the first time due to the extreme heat. However, in Germany it does not look like new highs at the moment, although of course the values ​​are very high, the temperature record ever recorded in this country was just over 40 degrees until a few years ago.

Was the 45-degree talk an exaggeration? In fact, meteorologists have always emphasized that this was not a prediction, but rather a single result, especially from a model from the USA, the so-called GFS (Global Forecasting System), on the morning of July 10. To produce a formal forecast, these models are combined and run dozens of times, each with slightly different starting conditions. Then forecasts are generated from the set computed in this way, corrections are also made in some cases, weakening outliers that are unrealistic from a historical point of view.

So the actual forecast was always well below 45 degrees, although the uncertainties a week before the event were significant anyway. The value was still staggering, because the fact that a serious model produces such extremes indicates that the components for that are at least primarily available – and that clearly shows ongoing climate change.