Short-term climate commitments at the World Climate Summit in Glasgow are too few to meet the Paris climate goals. This is the conclusion of the independent analysis center “Tracking Climate Action” In his report on November 9. According to this, if all commitments are maintained by 2030, the global temperature will rise by 2.4 degrees by the end of the century. Thus, the globally respected organization attributes to a more optimistic forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Which calls for an increase in temperature of 1.8 degrees – but based on all long-term commitments.
“Tracking Climate Action” does not rate its credibility too high, suggests statements made by the organization on its website. The goals agreed in Glasgow for 2030 are “totally inadequate”. There is a “huge gap in the credibility, action and commitment” of the international community that casts a “long dark shadow” on long-term commitments to reduce net emissions to zero. This assessment coincides with the results of a poll among climate experts conducted by “Nature” before the Climate Summit.
The more a goal lies in the future, the more ambitious it becomes. Most states want to get net emissions down to zero within 30 to 50 years, and if you take all of those full promises at face value, you’ll actually have a 1.8 degree warming by the end of the century. If you look at the next 10 years – which commitments have to be dealt with fairly quickly given the speed of political processes – you end up with a score of 2.4. Even if all COP26 promises are fulfilled, emissions in 2030 will be about twice what is necessary for the 1.5-degree target.
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